March opened with Brent crude carrying a significant geopolitical risk premium following the late-February escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Prices initially moved sharply higher from the high-$60s/bbl seen at the end of February, briefly testing the low-to-mid $70s as markets reacted to fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.

Approximately 20% of global oil supply had historically transited through the Strait prior to the outbreak of conflict, making it one of the most critical chokepoints in the global energy system. The effective overnight closure of the Strait marked a severe and immediate shock to global supply chains. Tanker traffic was halted or rerouted, insurance costs for shipping surged, and market participants were forced to rapidly reassess physical supply availability particularly for Asian  importers heavily reliant on Middle Eastern crude.

By the close of the month Brent had increased to $107/bbl. In the UK diesel pump prices increased by 40ppl on average and Kero/Jet fuel had increased by 80%.