Brent crude oil prices experienced a downward trend throughout early to mid-March, opening at approximately $73 per barrel before dropping to a month low of $69.30 on the 5^th.This decline was primarily driven by escalating trade tensions and concerns over a potential oversupply in the market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a global oil surplus of approximately 600,000 barrels per day for 2025, attributing this to increased production from non-OPEC+ countries, notably the United States, Brazil, and Canada. Additionally, OPEC+ announced plans to ease voluntary production cuts starting in April, further contributing to expectations of a well-supplied market. However, the market found resistance at $70/barrel and the second half of March saw Brent recover to $73/barrel. Rising tensions between the US and Iran were underpinning prices as Israeli troops resumed ground operations in Gaza. The US launched attacks on Houthi targets that threatened to disrupt logistics on the Red Sea that had previously been showing signs of stabilising.

The British Pound (GBP) demonstrated resilience against the U.S. Dollar (USD) throughout March. Beginning the month at $1.2591, the pound appreciated steadily, reaching a high of $1.2967 on 12^th March. This strength was underpinned by market expectations that the Bank of England would implement fewer interest rate cuts compared to other central banks, bolstering investor confidence in the GBP. Fears of a recession in the US also remain and put downward pressure on the dollar However, following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on European goods and imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, the pound experienced slight volatility but remained relatively stable. Sterling couldn’t close about $1.3000 but has been trading close to this mark as the month closes.

In March, U.S. President Donald Trump authorized a 25% tariff on imports from any country purchasing Venezuelan crude oil and liquid fuels. This unprecedented move aimed to pressure nations trading with Venezuela and could potentially be applied to other countries such as Russia and Iran. Analysts noted that these tariffs are easier to enforce than traditional sanctions and could have significant implications for global trade dynamics. Additionally, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a temporary moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and nuclear stations, starting from 18^th March for 30 days. This agreement aimed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and was contingent upon the lifting of U.S. sanctions on specific financial institutions. Both nations expressed intentions to pursue lasting peace through continued negotiations. Inventories in ARA fell during March as seasonal destocking continued ahead of the transition to summer spec Eurobob.  Gasoline stocks fell 6% to a 12-week low of 1.4 million mt, w/e 16^th March. Diesel inventories also fell to 2.17 million mt, but still up 6% on the year.