July saw a noteworthy turnaround in crude markets following a bearish June. Brent crude opened July at $66.50/barrel, buoyed by rising geopolitical tensions and improving demand indicators. Prices strengthened further, peaking above $72.09/bbl on 30th July, after U.S. President Trump threatened sweeping secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers and constrained global supply sentiment returned. By the middle of July Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast for H2 2025 to $66/bbl, citing tighter OECD inventories and ongoing risk premium pressures. Persistent U.S. gasoline draws, despite an unexpected 7.7 million‑barrel rise in crude stocks, signalled healthy seasonal demand as we start the summer driving season.
Despite the rally, gains were capped by the International Energy Agency’s July forecast showing global supply growth of 2.1 mb/d in 2025 versus demand growth of just 0.7 mb/d, signalling a medium‑term oversupply risk.
The British Pound began July at $1.3704, supported by risk-positive sentiment and waning U.S. dollar momentum. However, the pound lost ground through the month closing over 4% lower at 1.3290. Despite persistent inflation and stronger-than-expected UK wage growth, concerns about slowing business activity and retail underperformance weighed on sterling. Investors began positioning for an August rate cut from the Bank of England, dampening sterling’s advance.
