During November, Brent crude traded in a narrow band with downward pressure for much of the month. The month opened with Brent trading at little over $65/bbl and closed at $63/bbl. Early in the month, oil prices steadied. After a modest OPEC+ output-increase announcement (137,000 bpd for December), markets initially digested the increase as manageable, and futures held reasonably steady.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand growth rebounded in Q3 2025, but growth remains modest compared with the pace of supply increases. Oversupply concerns resurfaced mid-month and on 12^th November, a report from OPEC suggested supply and demand could balance in 2026, a shift from earlier deficit projections.

Brent dipped to lows in the low $62s per barrel range as investors increasingly priced in a surplus for 2026 with limited visible demand catalysts.

Nonetheless, sporadic supply-side risks provided some support. A strike on Russian export infrastructure at Novorossiysk briefly spurred a rally in mid-November, lifting prices modestly. Overall, November closed with Brent crude around $62–63/bbl, reflecting the prevailing bearish trend of oversupply, cautious demand outlook, and limited bullish catalysts.

Sterling remained under pressure through November, influenced by global risk sentiment, safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar, and persistent uncertainty over UK economic growth and fiscal stability. The dollar benefited from broad global moves towards caution as markets digested weak demand signals in commodities, especially oil, which often weigh on commodity-linked currencies and risk assets.