February 2026 - Portland Pricing

Monthly Pricing - 02/02/2026

After dipping to lows near $59–$61 per barrel in early January, Brent rallied sharply toward month-end amid heightened geopolitical risk, briefly breaking back above $70/bbl, its highest levels since mid-2025.

The rally was largely driven by renewed geopolitical risk premiums tied to the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran and escalating unrest in the Middle East, alongside supply-side frictions such as reduced Venezuelan exports and disruptions in Kazakhstan.

However, analysts and polls indicated that structural oversupply remains a dominant theme heading into 2026, with Brent expected to average near $60–$62/bbl for the year amid robust OPEC+ and non-OPEC production and modest demand growth.

Price Drivers

Supply OPEC+ producers signalled a pause on production increases for Q1 2026, a move interpreted as a tactical effort to support market balance amid seasonal demand softness and elevated inventories. Severe cold weather across the central and eastern United States in January caused temporary production slowdowns and increased heating fuel demand. U.S. crude and diesel inventories drew sharply at various points during the month as refineries throttled runs due to extreme cold,

Demand In the United States, cold weather boosted short-term heating fuel demand, but broader gasoline consumption remained under pressure from efficiency gains and cautious consumer spending.

Geopolitial Oil prices rallied as markets priced in a risk premium associated with U.S.–Iran tensions and unrest within Iran that could disrupt crude exports or impact regional logistics through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.