January 2026 - Portland Pricing

Monthly Pricing - 01/01/2026

Brent crude continued to trade at multi-year lows through December, reflecting persistent global oversupply risks and softening demand growth. Oil markets finished the year with prices near the low-$60s per barrel, extending an annual decline of nearly 18%, the steepest since 2020 as production growth outpaced consumption expansion and inventories rose.

OPEC+ maintained a relatively cautious attitude toward production in early November and paused significant output increases for the first quarter of 2026, yet the group’s cumulative supply additions throughout the year continued to support a surplus narrative.

Overall, Brent’s weak performance in December reinforced the dominant theme of structural oversupply and subdued industrial activity across key consuming regions, including Europe and Asia.

Refined products followed Brent down across the month, with diesel dropping $70/tonnes across the month while unleaded fell $75/tonne.

Price Drivers

Supply Global oversupply remained the overarching theme throughout December, driven by cumulative OPEC+ quota increases and resilient output from sanctioned producers like Russia despite economic pressure. Strategic pauses in production hikes for early 2026 helped cap downside but did little to materially tighten the market in December.

Demand Soft demand growth in developed markets weighed heavily on crude pricing. Rising inventories and weak refinery throughput growth signalled that demand had not meaningfully improved heading into winter.

Geopolitical Intermittent disruptions, including attacks on export infrastructure such as Novorossiysk and CPC pipeline delays, provided occasional support but were not sufficient to reverse bearish sentiment. The United States seized sanctioned tankers and implementing naval quarantine measures on voyages from Venezuelan ports. This pressure has significantly reduced Venezuelan crude flows and disrupted shipping patterns in the Caribbean.