Brent opened the month of February trading a little below $76.00 per barrel. US pressure on Iran and escalating global trade tensions because of US tariffs helped bolster crude prices in early February but concerns around over supply and rising US crude inventories limits upward movements. The America Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in crude stockpiles of over 9 million barrels for the week ending 7^th February. Talks of an US lead peace deal between Russia and Ukraine helped ease crude prices as Trump announced that talks to end the war would start “immediately”. On the 19^th February a drone attack on a key pumping station on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which could reduce crude flows by 30% for up to two months, saw prices rise. This was followed by freezing weather across central and southern America reducing output from the North Dakota pipeline by 150,000 bpd. Speculation that OPEC+ would postpone production increases saw prices rise to month high of $76.48/barrel on the 20^th February. The month ended with concern of global trade tariffs and oil demand growth coming back in to focus. This led to a drop in crude prices, and on the 26^th February crude closed at $72.53/barrel, a year to date low.

The British Pound (GBP) exhibited resilience against the U.S. Dollar (USD) throughout February. Opening the month at $1.2410, the pound appreciated steadily, reaching a peak of $1.2696 on 26^th February. This strength was attributed to market expectations that the Bank of England would implement fewer interest rate cuts compared to the European Central Bank, enhancing investor confidence in the GBP. US Retail sales were down 0.9% in January, indicating American consumers have cut their expenses. This, along with strong UK retail sales figures helped sterling reach year-to-date highs of $1.2696 on the 26^th February. However, following President Trump’s tariff announcement on February 27th, the pound experienced slight volatility but remained relatively stable, trading at $1.2628.

Geopolitical developments significantly impacted market dynamics in February. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs not only on European goods but also on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, led to heightened concerns about global economic stability. These actions prompted a rally in the U.S. Dollar as investors sought safe-haven assets, while global stock markets experienced declines due to fears of escalating trade tensions and potential inflationary pressures.