Prices opened the month at approximately $74.74 per barrel. Early in April, OPEC+ commenced the gradual unwinding of its voluntary output cuts, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day as part of an 18-month plan to restore 2.2 million bpd by September 2026. This saw crude benchmarks, including Brent, fall quickly and was compounded by US tariffs announcement and subsequent retaliatory tariffs from national around the world, particularly China.
Mid-month, prices experienced downward pressure due to concerns over a potential supply surplus, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting a 1.4 million bpd surplus in 2025 if OPEC+ proceeds with its planned production increases. Tariffs weigh on oil markets, with demand growth being projected at its slowest pace since the 2020 pandemic
As the month closed there was some support for Oil benchmarks as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects “there will be a de-escalation” in the tariff standoff with China in the “very near future.” By the end of April, Brent crude prices settled around $64.25 per barrel, down 14% through the month.
The British Pound (GBP) demonstrated relative stability against the U.S. Dollar (USD) throughout April. The exchange rate opened the month at $1.2908 and experienced modest fluctuations, influenced by economic indicators and monetary policy expectations.
In the UK, stronger-than-expected retail sales and a steady unemployment rate bolstered the pound, while in the U.S., mixed economic data and ongoing trade tensions under the Trump administration contributed to dollar volatility.
By April 30, the GBP/USD exchange rate closed at approximately $1.3390, reflecting a cautious optimism in the UK economy amidst global uncertainties.
The U.S. administration’s decision to impose additional tariffs on imports from key trading partners, including China, Mexico, and Canada, heightened global trade tensions and raised concerns about potential impacts on global economic growth.
In the Middle East, the U.S. military’s airstrikes on Yemen’s Ras Isa oil terminal disrupted regional oil infrastructure, contributing to supply concerns and market volatility.
Domestically, the UK faced structural changes in its energy sector, with the Grangemouth Refinery ceasing crude oil processing operations at the end of April, marking the end of oil refining in Scotland.
