Crude opened April already elevated, with Brent moving above $107/bbl in the opening sessions as attacks on oil infrastructure and tanker disruptions intensified. Early optimism around a potential ceasefire briefly pushed prices down toward $94/bbl by the second week, but this proved short-lived. A fragile, short-term truce failed to stabilise flows, with continued strikes on key infrastructure, including Saudi pipelines and regional export facilities. These strikes keeping supply risk firmly priced in.

Mid-month, markets attempted to stabilise, with Brent largely trading in the mid-$90s range as diplomatic efforts intermittently resumed. However, underlying fundamentals remained tight. OPEC output fell sharply, refined product inventories in Europe dropped to multi-year lows, and unplanned refinery outages added further pressure. At the same time, demand expectations began to weaken, with the IEA revising global oil demand lower, citing early signs of demand destruction linked to high prices and disrupted logistics.

The second half of April saw a renewed escalation. The collapse of negotiations and the reimposition of blockades led to a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively removing a critical artery for global oil flows. Prices responded accordingly, with Brent climbing from the high-$80s to above $100/bbl by the final week. By month-end, crude surged to four-year highs, briefly trading above $120/bbl as markets increasingly priced in a prolonged disruption.