In early October, Brent crude prices briefly firmed following reports of lower Russian product exports and temporary North Sea maintenance outages, which reduced short-term supply availability. However, these gains were short-lived as OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase production by 137 kb/d in November, reinforcing expectations of a structural surplus heading into winter.

Prices softened through the second and third weeks of the month as global fundamentals weighed heavily. Rising crude inventories and continued refined product stock drawdowns pointed to a well-supplied market with limited consumption growth. By 20th October, Brent fell to a month low of $60.63/bbl, marking its weakest level since late April.

The market regained some ground in the final week after U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil sparked renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions. This geopolitical tension prompted a mild risk premium, lifting Brent to close the month at $64.31/bbl.

Sterling opened October at $1.3463, but weakened early in the month as concerns about the UK’s fiscal trajectory and global growth prospects pressured risk-sensitive currencies. By 10th October, GBP/USD had fallen to $1.3281.

Mid-month, the pound recovered modestly, buoyed by softer U.S. inflation data and stronger UK retail sales, helping it rise to $1.3427. However, gains were capped by the lack of progress on productivity and subdued business investment expectations. In the final third of the month, renewed safe-haven demand for the dollar—driven by risk-off sentiment in equity markets—saw sterling retreat again, closing October at $1.3134.