Brent prices traded in a narrow range through much of September, with prices ranging between $66–$68/bbl. In the last third of the month, the market saw a modest rally, with Brent closing at $69.80/bbl on the 26th as global tensions and supply concerns resurfaced. During the month, Brent also climbed following a Ukrainian drone attack on the Primorsk port, a key Russian export terminal, which disrupted Russian crude and product flows.

However, later in September, prices began to slip, pressured by restored exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region and expectations that OPEC+ will approve a further production increase in November (~137,000 bpd) to maintain market share saw prices fall back.

On 1st September, GBP/USD stood at $1.3550. The GBP weakened, slipping to $1.3399 on 2nd September before recovering some ground. By late September, GBP had rebounded modestly, trading near $1.3418, trimming earlier losses.

Sterling’s weakness reflected heightened concerns over UK public borrowing and fiscal stability, which elevated gilt yield risk premia. Meanwhile, the US dollar was supported by a cautious tone from Fed Chair Powell, which reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts and pushed investors toward the USD.

OPEC+ is poised to approve a further output increase (137,000 bpd) in November, continuing its pivot toward market share expansion even amid fears of oversupply. Some funds have scaled up bearish bets on crude, speculating on deep price declines by year-end. At the same time, analysts are increasingly cautious about demand, especially given softening global industrial and transportation indicators.